Newcastle United poised to make £286m announcement as PIF deliver something not seen for a long time

For Newcastle United fans who dreamt of Hollywood signings financed by limitless oil money, the constant slog to comply with Premier League spending rules since PIF’s takeover has been a trial.

The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) command assets of around £700bn, depending on who you ask. But they have been able to funnel only the tiniest fraction of that into Newcastle.

Eddie Howe’s side rode a wave of optimism that carried the Magpies into the Champions League in PIF’s first full season on Tyneside, but the reality of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) has now hit home.

As CEO Darren Eales has repeatedly said, ꦛNewcastle will always spend that absolute maximum under PSR.

𒀰The problem is that maximum is limited by the allowable loss threshold under PSR, which stands at £105m and has not been raised in over a decade despite general and football-specific inflation.

That system, as Liverpool University football finance lecturer Kieran Maguire and others have consistently told TBR Footballꦇ, effectively insulates the already wealthy from failure.

🌠Granted, the system does – to an extent – safeguard clubs from overspending and then being abandoned by their owners, potentially limiting the number of clubs who go bust.

🌠But it also places a ceiling on the ambitions of the likes of Newcastle and Aston Villa, whose recent success is almost impossible to sustain in the long term without enormous increase in revenue.

With the St James’ Park club closer to the bottom of the Premier League than they are to the top, Howe and Paul Mitchell would love for PIF to be able to loosen the purse strings in the January transfer window.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
8	FulhamFulham	16	6	6	4	24	22	2	24
9	BrightonBrighton	16	6	6	4	26	25	1	24
10	TottenhamTottenham	16	7	2	7	36	19	17	23
11	BrentfordBrentford	16	7	2	7	32	30	2	23
12	NewcastleNewcastle	16	6	5	5	23	21	2	23
13	Man UtdManchester United	16	6	4	6	21	19	2	22
14	West HamWest Ham	16	5	4	7	21	29	-8	19
15	Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace	16	3	7	6	17	21	-4	16

🌼But Newcastle posted a financial loss of around £70m in 2022-23, the last financial year for which data is publicly available.

𒁃In the first quarter of 2025, the club will release their data for 2023-24, a season which saw them compete in the lucrative Champions League.

ꩲThe results in these accounts, which are currently being sifted through by the auditors and the club’s in-house finance department, will dictate the funds available in January under PSR.

𝄹Thankfully, a leading analytics firm has now suggested that Newcastle’s financial records will make pleasant reading for fans.

• READ MORE: ꦡPIF using Newcastle United as a ‘smokescreen’ for new takeover plan masterminded by Amanda Staveley

Newcastle United forecasted to post club-record revenue

💎Newcastle were left scrambling to comply with PSR before the 30th June cut-off this year.

♊They were forced to sell two rising stars in Yankuba Minteh and Elliot Anderson, both of whom are excelling at Brighton and Nottingham Forest respectively.

♚However, it seems that those exits, increased commercial and matchday income, plus Champions League cash have left the club in a favourable position under PSR going forward.

🌃A new analysis by , an analytics firm whose services are used by a number of elite clubs, has forecasted that Newcastle will post club-record revenue of £286m for the financial year.

⛎Broadcast income is believed to be the biggest contributor by some distance, coming in at around £180m.

ꦑThat is thanks in part to the projected £28.1m Champions League payout from UEFA which, despite being comfortably the lowest of any Premier League club because of the coefficient system, will have been warmly welcomed.

🔯Matchday revenue is forecasted to have topped out at £39.6m, while commercial income has hit £64.1m.

൲Expenses meanwhile – including a wage bill of £194.9m and transfer amortisation of £87.3m – are estimated at £244m.

🐓That calculation leaves them with a profit. It will be the first time that has happened since 2018-19, when Newcastle were still under the control of Mike Ashley.

• READ MORE: 𒅌Newcastle United get PSR boost as official update from Premier League HQ opens door for £74m PIF plan

PSR and FFP: Do Eddie Howe and Newcastle have funds to spend in January?

𝓰If Off The Pitch’s forecast is broadly accurate, Newcastle should have considerable headroom available in January.

♋The £71m loss they posted in 2021-22 is now no longer part of their PSR calculation.

🧸Although they lost £73m in 2022-23, that should be significantly offset by the forecasted low eight-figure profit in 2023-24.

𒀰In theory then, they could have £50-70m of PSR headroom. In layman’s terms, they could lose approximately that amount in 2024-25 and remain compliant.

That would appear to tally with the Magpies’ pursuit of Marc Guehi💙 in the summer which, although unsuccessful, suggested that they were comfortable spending £60m under the terms of PSR.

🐲Newcastle’s move to a player trading model as opposed to being solely a buying club – as has been the case for the bulk of the PIF era – might mean some fringe players are sold in January nonetheless.

But supporters will be relieved to know that, according to Off The Pitch’s analysis at least, it does not look like they are being forced 💃into selling Bruno Guimaraes, Alexander Isak, or Anthony Gordon by PSR.