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Why Chelsea should proceed with caution when considering this experienced head coach

Chelsea fans have spent most of this season looking forward to next. Between an awful start to the title defense in the Premier League, and then the firing of fan favourite manager Jose Mourinho, there really hasn’t been much to keep Blues fans excited about this campaign.

There are many questions dominating fans and pundits minds, and questions the club must answer:

Does the club begin to integrate more of their stellar youth players, or continue to rely on the transfer market for fresh talent?

What becomes of Eden Hazard, something of a prodigal son this season, alienating fans with his actions on and off the pitch, and who reportedly would like a move to Real Madrid?

How did the disaster of this season happen, and how can it be prevented from happening again?

The most important questions, however, is who will be the next manager of Chelsea? The next manager can calm the “palpable discord” in the dressing room, and restore Chelsea’s form (although, to be fair, Hiddink has already made massive steps in that direction, and to be completely fair, the steps in the right direction began in the late periods of Mourinho’s rule).

The next manager will have input, if not final input, on Hazard’s sale, and will also have input on what players are brought in.

He will determine the extent that young players, like Bertrand Traore, Kenedy, Ruben Loftus Cheek, Lewis Baker, Dom Solanke, Andreas Christensen and on and on, are included in the first team.

He will decide whether Mourinho’s tactics will be continued, in a general sense, as they have been since Mourinho’s first spell at the club in 2004-2007 (with the brief 6 month break that Andre Villas-Boas was in charge for), or whether Chelsea will begin a new era.

With that in mind, it is interesting to take a look at Chelsea’s rumored managerial shortlist.

Diego Simeone is a top candidate, but the Atletico Madrid manager is unlikely to make the move for several reasons. First, his style doesn’t quite fit what Roman Abramovich will be looking for. Abramovich wants a manager who will install a possession based, attacking, proactive style.

Simeone plays Mourinho-ball, without the offense and more emphasis on not conceding. Plus, Simeone would want too much control, including complete control over transfers, and that competition for power is probably one of the reasons that Mourinho was fired.

On top of that, Simeone is in a great situation at Atleti: he is adored by the fans, has complete power at the club, can play as pragmatic and defensive a system that he wants, and now consistently challenges not just for La Liga but also for the Champions League.

He has taken a team from a period of obscurity into being one of the premier teams in Europe in just 5 years. That’s a pretty nice situation, and it would take a lot from Abramovich to tempt Simeone away.

Antonio Conte, the manager of Italy and former manager of Juventus, and Max Allegri, the current manager of Juventus, are also both options. Both are seen as stable options, like Hiddink, and neither would probably object to upper management retaining control over transfers and youth teams.

Both are strong tactically, with strong defenses and exciting offenses. Conte and Allegri’s Juventus teams have been among the best in Europe since Conte took over in 2011. Both are also, most likely, relatively short term options, probably staying for 2-3 years.

Given Abramovich’s love affair with Pep Guardiola, now contracted to City, and given that Guardiola will probably stay no longer than a few years at City, this might be nice.

But the outsider on the list, the only candidate to have never managed in Europe, is Jorge Sampaoli.

Sampaoli was most recently manager of Chile, taking over a year after his mentor Marcelo Biesla had resigned. Sampaoli’s Chile impressed at the 2014 World Cup, helping to knock Spain out in the group stage, before losing on penalties in a tense match against Brazil in the round of 16.

They then won the 2015 Copa America, at home in Santiago, against a Lionel Messi led Argentina. Sampaoli’s tactics also won wide acclaim, drawing obvious comparison to Biesla’s.

Sampaoli plays a very aggressive style, with a high defensive line and an ultra-intense counterpress. All of his players must be physically gifted, both in pace and stamina, to cover the full length of the field for 90 minutes.

His Chile teams simply unsettled and overran teams with their never ending press. They would defend in packs, shutting down a man once he got the ball, forcing a turnover, and then immediately starting a counter. They never ran out of energy, finding a new boost every time the opposing team finally got comfortable in possession.

It’s easy to see why Abramovich would be attracted to Sampaoli. His teams are exhilarating to watch, a definite must for any Chelsea manager, and are incredibly productive on offense. At the same time, Sampaoli’s defending is strong: it is an imperative in a high pressing team to ensure that opponents don’t get many quality chances, or else your press will be torn apart.

Sampaoli would also be the cheapest option, and the one that would have the least leverage to demand power. He’s an outsider, having never managed a European team, and with that in mind, he doesn’t have much ground to stand on if he wants to demand control over personnel, transfers and the youth system.

But there should be some serious questions about Sampaoli.

Firstly, and most importantly, does Chelsea, at the moment, have the ability to play his style?

Mourinho, in the past three seasons, did set Chelsea up to counter well, but for the most part had the Blues defending in their own half, in a block. Can Sampaoli transition the squad from this somewhat passive defending to an aggressive, high press?

It would seem he wouldn’t have the backline to do so, most notably. John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic and Gary Cahill are all regulars in the backline, are on the wrong side of 30, and have major struggles with athleticism and pace. Kurt Zouma, at center-back, as well as Cesar Azpilicueta and Baba Rahman, two fullbacks, could easily deal with a high line, but is that enough?

Sampaoli normally plays three at the back, usually three center-backs, or sometimes two center-backs and a defensive midfield. Rahman and Azpilicueta would play in midfield, as wingbacks. So how would Sampaoli work around Ivanovic and Cahill’s (Terry is most likely on his way out, but maybe not) lack of pace?

I’m not sure the rest of the team is capable of playing under Sampaoli as well. Would Cesc Fabregas flounder in a system that prioritizes box-to-box midfielders over deep playmakers? Would Hazard be interested in doing a fair amount of defending, or would he look for a move out?

Another question is that of fitness. Biesla teams have chronic problems with injuries over a season. Playing such a high tempo, demanding game, as well as intense training sessions in the week, wears down players muscles, setting them up for muscles pulls and tears.

Jurgen Klopp is struggling with the same problem at Liverpool now. His eagerness to put the gegenpressing system in took its toll on the Reds, with many players going down injured during the busy winter period, from lack of rest.

I am fairly certain that these same problems would hound Sampaoli at Chelsea. Klopp put a similarly aggressive style in at Dortmund during his time there, but with the German winter break, it was much easier to rest players.

Would Sampaoli be a uniting or dividing figure? The last manager Abramovich brought in to revolutionize Chelsea’s play was Andre Villas-Boas, and he tore the dressing apart, antagonizing the core of Chelsea’s squad. Coming off a manager who created an air would Abramovich really want to hire a manager who could alienate key players by abandoning them in his new style?

There are many questions about Sampaoli. Despite this, he is an intriguing option, and as a Chelsea fan, I would be both interested and excited to see him as our manager. Conte, Allegri and Simeone are safer choices, both tactically and practically, but Sampaoli is a serious candidate. The board needs to be careful as it chooses Mourinho’s successor.

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