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What do Burnley need to stay in the Premier League this season?
In retrospect, 25th April 2015 was a dramatic fork in the road of English football’s recent history and a reminder of how contingent the beautiful game can be. Burnley faced Leicester City at Turf Moor in a crucial relegation clash. In the 59th minute, Matty Taylor missed a penalty that would have given Burnley the lead. Less than 60 seconds later, Jamie Vardy bundled in a rebound to put Leicester ahead. Had Burnley won 1-0, they would have gone a point clear of Leicester with four games to go. Leicester held on to win 1-0 and went five points clear of the Clarets. Burnley were relegated, while the Foxes survived and went on to win the Premier League title the following season.
Burnley have an opportunity to avenge that cruel twist of fate this season, rebounding into the Premier League with a title win of their own in the Championship last season. Burnley and their engaging manager Sean Dyche won many fans during their last stay in the Premier League in 2014/15, a campaign that yielded 33 points. That was not enough to stay afloat, but Burnley were always competitive. Incredibly, they conceded the same number of league goals as fifth placed Tottenham Hotspur.
However, the Clarets only scored 28 which is ultimately where they fell short. This lack of punch at the top end of the pitch prevented them from accumulating the home points they ought to have done. Burnley won just 4 of 19 league matches at Turf Moor and drew seven. Realistically, they have to double this tally of home wins if they are to survive in the top flight this time around.
Danny Ings, Burnley’s most potent threat two seasons ago, has since joined Liverpool. He was replaced by Andre Gray, who formed a formidable partnership with Sam Vokes in the Championship; they bagged 40 league goals between them. Gray is a tremendous physical presence with pace to match, though doubts remain over the quality of his first touch at Premier League level. However, what Vokes and Gray lack in finesse they could make up for in nuisance factor. The sight of two physically imposing centre forwards playing in tandem is a rare sight in the Premier League, and a rare examination for Premier League centre backs. Nevertheless, Dyche may look to add another goal-getter before the window closes.
Burnley’s sole permanent signing of the summer so far is winger Johann Berg Gudmundsson from Charlton Athletic. Vokes and Gray rely on service from wide areas and many Burnley fans are keen to see Dyche diversify his attack. Two seasons ago, Kieran Trippier was Burnley’s leading provider of assists; evidence of a reliance on crosses to create chances. This might also explain Dyche’s .
Dyche’s success so far has been based on an organised 4-4-2, and he typically employs fairly conservative players on the wings who tuck in to compensate for the lack of numbers in the middle of the pitch. Scott Arfield, naturally a central midfielder, is one player that Dyche trusts to carry out these duties. This is not a comparison you expect to make, but there are similarities between Dyche’s Burnley and Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid; the organisation, the two banks of four and the strikers dropping back goal side of the opponent’s deepest midfielder.
However, there are times when a manager needs to roll the dice, and Dyche didn’t really have the ability to do that two years ago. Junior Stanislas was his joker on the substitutes bench, which didn’t quite cut the mustard. Burnley also racked up an incredible run of matches with an unchanged team, stretching well into double figures. This continuity is a key part of success but one wonders if some more rotation might help Burnley come the final stretch of the season. Dyche admirably points out that Burnley get more rest days in the Premier League than in the Championship, but this perhaps underestimates the added intensity of each match.
Burnley will be a competitive force once again next season, but they need to add both quality and unpredictability in the final third to survive. There are similarities between the Clarets and their old relegation rivals Leicester City in terms of style and tactics. The Foxes however, had Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez to drag them across the line. Burnley need to find comparable stardust from somewhere.
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