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Finance insider shares what ‘investors are saying’ about West Ham takeover as Karren Brady wants £800m

In the world of high finance, West Ham are seen as one of Europe’s most desirable clubs. If you were playing football Monopoly, you want this property, as David Sullivan and Karren Brady are well aware.

Followed by the 99-year yellow-sticker rental agreement at the London Stadium, West Ham’s heritage, geography, and devoted fanbase are its USPs.

And in a Premier League ecosystem where red ink flows profusely in almost every club’s accounting department, the Irons posted a £57m profit in the last financial year.

Photo by Jacques Feeney/Offside/Offside via Getty Images
Photo by Jacques Feeney/Offside/Offside via Getty Images

But there is a sense of malaise on the terraces in East London – and with good reason.

Graham Potter, who has won one of his first four matches in charge, has been tasked with untangling the mangled mess that was the board’s David Moyes succession plan.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
13 Man UtdManchester United24 8 5 11 28 34 -6 29
14 TottenhamTottenham24 8 3 13 48 37 11 27
15 West HamWest Ham24 7 6 11 29 46 -17 27
16 EvertonEverton23 6 8 9 23 28 -5 26
17 WolvesWolves24 5 4 15 34 52 -18 19

Tim Steidten distanced himself from the Spaniard’s appointment, but having loaded up the payroll with expensive flops – Konstantinos Mavropanos, Niclas Fullkrug and Luis Guilherme – he too has been ousted.

But more egregious than the lack of a coherent footballing direction is the diminishing regard for bedrock supporters, who feel they are being priced out in favour of more lucrative demographics.

Infographic sowing the matchday incomes plus stadium capacities and planned upgrades in the Premier League, featuring Newcastle United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Leeds United, Tottenham, Arsenal and Everton
Premier League stadium capacities and income. Credit: Adam Williams, GRV Media

Echoing a trend emerging across the Premier League, West Ham have dramatically scaled back concessions rates (discounts for seniors and juniors) and hiked ticket prices beyond the rate of inflation.

Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) are being used as a smokescreen for rising ticket prices. West Ham had zero PSR issues even before their £57m surplus last year. Now, they have sizable headroom.

Infographic explaining the PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules, formerly known as FFP) for Premier League, Championship and UEFA clubs
PSR infographic. Credit: Adam Williams, GRV Media

Even if David Sullivan and his deputies did have anxieties about PSR, the extra burden that higher prices place on fans is wildly disproportionate to the negligible extra matchday income it generates.

Concerns about profiteering among Premier League clubs reached a crescendo in the aftermath of the aborted European Super League plot in April 2021.

That breakaway – which was slated by Karren Brady, who echoed UEFA president Alexander Ceferin when he labelled the 12 Super League clubs ‘snakes’ – sparked a fan-led review of football governance.

One of the recommendations of that report was for a government-backed independent regulator for English football. Four years on, the bill is now making its way through Parliament.

However, while the proposal has the near universal support of fans, the same can’t be said of Premier League executives, including Brady, who has routinely voiced her disdain for the regulator.

Infographic explaining the powers of the independent football regulator
Independent football regulator infographic. Credit: Adam Williams, GRV Media

What’s more, as a Conservative peer in the House of Lords, she is actively lobbying to water down the bill.

Brady argues that increased red tape will stifle investment in English football – and with West Ham having appointed the Rothschild bank to search for a new minority equity partner, she has a vested interest.

Regulator is no barrier to West Ham investment, says Kieran Maguire

In a major U-turn this week, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has withdrawn her support for regulator, which – incidentally – was proposed when her party was in government.

“I think a football regulator is going to be a waste of money,” the MP for North West Essex said.

“When I speak to people in the industry, they don’t think it’s going to work. So why are we doing it?”

However, that is totally at odds with the stance of leading football finance expert Kieran Maguire, who was one of the specialists consulted in the drafting process for the bill.

Speaking exclusively to TBR Football, Maguire insisted that Brady’s fears that the regulator could discourage foreign investment are unfounded, citing Daniel Kretinsky’s part-takeover of the Irons in 2021.

Photo by JOEL SAGET/AFP via Getty Images
Photo by JOEL SAGET/AFP via Getty Images

“I think there is a huge amount of self-interest in Karren Brady’s comments,” said the Price of Football author and podcast host.

“There is no evidence that it will discourage investment in the Premier League.

“The reason I say that is because, since the announcement of the regulator, we have seen Ratcliffe come into United, Bill Foley come into Bournemouth.

RankClubOwner(s)Net worth
1Newcastle UnitedSaudi Arabia Public Investment Fund (85%), RB Sports & Media (15%)£750bn
2Manchester UnitedGlazer Family, Sir Jim Ratcliffe£16.2bn
3ArsenalStan Kroenke£13.4bn
4Manchester CityAbu Dhabi United Group, Silver Lake£13.4bn
5ChelseaClearlake Capital, Todd Boehly, Hansjorg Wyss, Mark Walter£12.5bn
6LiverpoolFenway Sports Group£9.7bn
7West Ham UnitedDavid Sullivan, Daniel Kretinsky, Vanessa Gold£8.2bn
8Aston VillaWes Edens, Nassef Sawiris Atairos£8.2bn
9FulhamShahid Khan£6.3bn
10EvertonThe Friedkin Group£6.0bn
11TottenhamJoe Lewis Family Trust, Daniel Levy£4.6bn
12Wolverhampton WanderersFosun£4.6bn
13Crystal PalaceSteve Parish, Josh Harris, David Blitzer, John Textor£4.4bn
14Leicester CityThe Srivaddhanaprabha Family£2.8bn
15BournemouthWilliam Foley£1.6bn
16Brighton & Hove AlbionTony Bloom£1.0bn
17SouthamptonSport Republic, Katharina Liebherr£1.0bn
18Nottingham ForestEvangelos Marinakis£0.5bn
19BrentfordMatthew Benham£0.4bn
20Ipswich TownGamechanger 20 Ltd.£0.3bn
Estimated net worth based on reliable sources as of 03/01/24

“There has been huge amounts of investment in other clubs as well, including Kretinsky’s in West Ham, so this appears to be scaremongering from Karren Brady.

“When I talk to some investors, they say they aren’t keen on the things the Premier League has done itself.

“Under Premier League rules, for example, the owners of Newcastle can’t invest as much s they want, nor can the owners of Aston Villa or the new owners of Everton.

“Incidentally, why would they have chosen to buy Everton if they knew the regulator was on the cards? So, Karren Brady’s words are not reflected in what we’re seeing in the markets themselves.

“When you talk to investors, the main concern is PSR. The Premier League’s own rules discourage investment in that regard.

“The regulator isn’t really seen as an issue at all for investment in West Ham or any other club.”

Karren Brady values West Ham at £800m

It looks as though Daniel Kretinsky will not be significantly upping his stake in West Ham any time soon.

The Czech billionaire’s deal to acquire 27 per cent of the club in 2021 went through at around £200m. It’s unclear how much influence he wields behind the scenes.

RankClubLeagueCountryValue1-y value change (%)RevenueOperating income
1Real MadridSpanish La LigaSpain£5.18bn9£685m£60m
2Manchester UnitedEnglish Premier LeagueEngland£5.14bn9£616m£147m
3BarcelonaSpanish La LigaSpain£4.39bn2£660m£-114m
4LiverpoolEnglish Premier LeagueEngland£4.21bn2£565m£80m
5Manchester CityEnglish Premier LeagueEngland£4.01bn2£683m£111m
6Bayern MunichGerman BundesligaGermany£3.93bn3£613m£66m
7Paris Saint-GermainFrench Ligue 1France£3.45bn4£592m£-99m
8Tottenham HotspurEnglish Premier LeagueEngland£2.51bn14£522m£126m
9ChelseaEnglish Premier LeagueEngland£2.46bn1£487m£0m
10ArsenalEnglish Premier LeagueEngland£2.4bn15£617m£110m
SOURCE: Forbes Soccer Valuations 2024

Sullivan and his enforcer Brady are the most powerful faction at the club, and with Vanessa Gold, daughter of the late David Gold, looking to sell a chunk of her stake, any deal will need their approval.

Significantly, a line on Brady’s personal website suggests that she values the club at £800m, which is almost three times what the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) paid for Newcastle.

A minority deal at that price might be difficult to see out, especially given that the Premier League is a saturated marketplace in terms of clubs seeking fresh investment at present.

Tottenham are looking for a new equity partner, as are Bournemouth, Wolves and Crystal Palace.