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Benfica set to issue official Darwin Nunez update on this date as £72m Liverpool bonanza confirmed

It has been a wild ride for Darwin Nunez on Merseyside, with occasional flashes of brilliance eclipsed by habitual moments chaos, but his future at Liverpool is uncertain.

After signing from Benfica in June 2022, Nunez has scored 37 times in 122 appearances, laying on a further 21 goals for his teammates.

Those are semi-respectable numbers in isolation but hardly befitting of a centre-forward who arrived as Liverpool’s record signing, aiming to ease the dependence on Mohamed Salah.

Liverpool’s most expensive signings

RankPlayerFee + add-onsFrom ClubYear
1Darwin Nuñez£85.36mBenfica2022
2Virgil van Dijk£75mSouthampton2018
3Alisson Becker£65mAS Roma2018
4Dominik Szoboszlai£60mRB Leipzig2023
5Naby Keita£52.75mRB Leipzig2018
6Luis Diaz£50mFC Porto2021
7Diogo Jota£45mWolverhampton Wanderers2020
8Cody Gakpo£44mPSV Eindhoven2023
9Mohamed Salah£43.9mAS Roma2017
10Fabinho£43.7mAS Monaco2018

Instead, the asymmetry in Liverpool’s goals column has tipped even further the other way. Salah has been involved in 51 per cent of Arne Slot’s side’s goals this season. Nunez? 11 per cent.

The underlying data doesn’t signal that the Uruguayan’s will turn things around either, and Slot – along with sporting director Richard Hughes – appears to have decided he is not the future of the Reds’ attack.

Darwin Nunez’s record for Liverpool

CompetitionAppearancesGoalsAssists
Premier League802213
UEFA Champions League1450
UEFA Europa League1051
FA Cup622
EFL Cup1125
Community Shield110
Total1223721

This week, several outlets have claimed that the Saudi Pro League could be an exit option for the 25-year-old. Al-Hilal, home to Neymar and Joao Cancelo among others, were said to be interested.

Reportedly, the Riyadh-based club submitted a ‘verbal’ £70m offer for misfiring Nunez, who may well have been tempted by a tax-free wage of £400,000 per week in Saudi Arabia.

However, TBR Football understands that these reports are wide of the mark and Nunez will, for the time being at least, be staying put at Anfield, although the Pro League are looking at players of his calibre.

Elsewhere, it has been claimed that Liverpool value Nunez at closer to £85m and are more likely to sanction his exit in the summer.

Photo by Andrew Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images
Photo by Andrew Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images

If they could make a profit on the deal, which at that price would only just miss out on the top-10 biggest Premier League sales of all time, it would represent a huge PR victory for Liverpool’s player trading model.

Benfica meanwhile, the club with arguably the best player trading system in world football, are still actively raking it in from the deal that saw the 6 ft 2 in striker move to Anfield.

Benfica to release Darwin Nunez add-on details

When it comes to transfer fees, the headline figures can sometimes be a little misleading.

Clubs have different policies when it comes to how they market their signings or sales. Liverpool, for their part, tend to overstate how much they have paid and understate how much they have received.

This strategy extends to the commercial department too.

Liverpool’s soon-to-be-announced kit deal with Adidas, for example, is likely to be worth around £90m per year, significantly more than the £60m figure the club briefed to the press.

Photo by CHRISTOF STACHE/AFP via Getty Images
Photo by CHRISTOF STACHE/AFP via Getty Images

This is on-brand for Liverpool owners Fenway Sports Group (FSG), who value financial sustainability above all else, making worst-case forecasts in order to budget responsibly.

The relevance to Nunez? The headline figures suggested he was Liverpool’s most expensive signing ever at £85m, but that was if every add-on condition was met.

In fact, the upfront value was a more modest £64m.

We can say this with certainty as Benfica broke down the agreement in their semi-annual club accounts.

Photo by Marco Steinbrenner/DeFodi Images via Getty Images
Photo by Marco Steinbrenner/DeFodi Images via Getty Images

What’s more, the Portuguese Primeira Liga club also continues to outline which clauses have and have not been met under the terms of the deal.

As relayed by football finance expert and author of the Vanity, Sanity and Reality newsletter Greg Cordell, Benfica have confirmed that €10m (£8.4m) they have received a further £8.4m from Liverpool so far.

That takes the total Liverpool have paid out, excluding agent fees, to around £72m. Although, it should also be noted that the payment schedule is not outlined in the accounts.

What’s more, again as relayed by Cordell via X, Benfica will reveal in in late February or early March whether any additional add-ons have been paid in the last six months.

Typically, add-ons activated when a player reaches a certain milestone, whether in terms of goals scored or appearances made, or in terms of team performance.

Winning the Premier League, for example, which Liverpool are well on course to do ahead of tonight’s clash with 3rd-place Nottingham Forest, could theoretically trigger an additional payout for Benfica.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
1 LiverpoolLiverpool19 14 4 1 47 19 28 46
2 ArsenalArsenal20 11 7 2 39 18 21 40
3 Nottm ForestNottingham Forest20 12 4 4 29 19 10 40
4 ChelseaChelsea20 10 6 4 39 24 15 36
5 NewcastleNewcastle20 10 5 5 34 22 12 35
6 Man CityManchester City20 10 4 6 36 27 9 34

The Mohamed Salah factor: How much could Liverpool spend to replace Nunez?

Even with Nunez underperforming, it would be a risk for Liverpool to sell their only out-and-out striker in January, even if the likes of Luis Diaz have proved far more effective playing through the middle of late.

Then again, if Liverpool decide to persist with him until the summer, the club could be in the midst of a changing of the guard for the ages when they do come around to finding him a new home.

Chart depicting Liverpool's annual wage bill relative to their revenue

The contract situations of Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk are still not resolved. Faith that the Reds will keep hold of Alexander-Arnold in particular is rapidly diminishing.

And while to lose players of their quality for free would be a disaster for FSG both strategically and in terms of their standing among Liverpool fans, their exits would free up around £1m per week in wages.

Photo by Liverpool FC/Liverpool FC via Getty Images
Photo by Liverpool FC/Liverpool FC via Getty Images

Liverpool have PSR headroom of around £184m to sign replacements for the trio, more than almost any other club. Although, having the capacity to spend doesn’t mean they will do, especially under FSG.

But either way, it is impossible to imagine a scenario after losing even one of those players alongside Nunez that does not lead to the Boston-based owners sanctioning huge expenditure next summer.