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49ers and Red Bull have big plans for Leeds amid £119m off-pitch offer
When news broke of Red Bull’s investment in Leeds United earlier this summer, supporters were understandably both excited and apprehensive.
The Austrian energy drinks giants run one of the most successful multi-club networks in world football, but one in which their brands takes precedence over clubs’ unique identities.
However, Leeds fans have been given assurances that they will not become ‘Red Bull Leeds’ any time soon.
Red Bull have sponsored the front of Leeds’ shirts, however, in a record deal for a Championship club.
Ideally, the group would have liked for their minority investment to have come at a time when Leeds were celebrating promotion to the Premier League.
But their failure at the final hurdle in 2023-24 meant Daniel Farke’s side did not get back to the top flight on their first attempt since their three-year stint ended with relegation the previous campaign.
Things have changed a lot at Elland Road in that period.
However, one thing that has not altered is Leeds’ stance towards the incoming independent regulator for English football, the body that could transform the pyramid in years to come.
To explore the West Yorkshire club’s view on independent regulation and what it means for Red Bull and the San Francisco 49ers’ long-term plans, TBR spoke exclusively to football finance expert Kieran Maguire.
Leeds and Angus Kinnear vehemently oppose independent regulation
First proposed in Tracey Crouch MP’s Fan-Led Review of English Football, the independent regulator bill was making its way through Parliament until the general election earlier this month.
Now, the new Labour government have reintroduced the regulator. And the general view is that they will take a more hard-line view that the previous Conservative cabinet.
Why does this matter for Leeds? Because one of the powers of the independent regulator will be to enforce the fair flow of finances between the Premier League and the rest of the pyramid.
Leeds are in a curious position here.
On the one hand, they are currently in the EFL, so might favour greater solidarity payments.
On the other, they expect to return to the Premier League in the medium-term and may act in their own self-interest accordingly.
Leeds managing director Angus Kinnear explicitly opposes independent regulation, controversially likening it Chairman Mao’s agricultural collectivism.
However, Kinnear penned that open letter when Leeds were still in the top flight. Might their stance have softened since relegation? Maguire does not think so.
“I don’t expect Leeds to have changed their viewpoint,” said the Liverpool University football finance lecturer and Price of Football author.
“The 49ers investment arm is looking to establish Leeds as a Premier League regular with all the financial benefits that brings with the TV deal.
“The distribution issue is much broader. The Premier League is a breakaway league and has negotiated as such, but at the same time, it has links with the EFL.
“I can’t see Leeds changing. When I have communicated with the club, there is no doubt that their ambitions are to be similar to Villa, West Ham, that type of club. Ideally, in a 50,000-capacity stadium.
“One of the benefits that brings is substantial financial benefits over the EFL.”
Is a Labour government bad news for Leeds’ hopes to water down the regulator?
Multiple Premier League chairs and owners have said that a Labour government would not bode well for a light-touch approach to regulation.
The fear for the likes of Leeds is that the regulator could get over-involved in the details and day-to-day governance of clubs, potentially scaring off foreign investment in the Premier League.
Some have even speculated that it could intervene in capital expenditure projects, such as Leeds’ plan to expand Elland Road to beyond 50,000.
But Maguire, who has been regularly consulted by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport, does not that Sir Kier Starmer’s government will take any such draconian measures.
“My understanding is that Labour was involved very much at the planning stage in terms of the bill that was introduced by the Conservative government. It very much had cross-party Parliamentary support.
“I don’t think there will be a big push to get involved in operational issues. When I spoke to the Parliamentary committee in April when the bill had just had a second reading, one of the issues I was asked by an MP was if I thought the regulator’s role should extend to issues such as ticket prices.
“I said ‘no, these are private, loss-making companies. We must always bear in mind that, while there has been very close contact between the people devising the bill and UEFA, we have to keep them onside, because government interference could be a big issue in football.
“If the government decides to extend the remit to issues such as ticket prices, it could be that Infantino and co say that is a step too far.
“So, I am not anticipating significant differences. The main one, one we are seeing a huge amount of lobbying is backstop powers around financial flow from the Premier League downwards.”
Red Bull and 49ers want Leeds to be sustained presence in the Premier League
Leeds’ continued opposition to the regulator would indicate that they see themselves in the Premier League for a sustained period in the near future.
If not, they would likely be backing the regulator to secure even more than the £119m per season in extra solidarity payments that the Premier League is currently offering the EFL.
“Red Bull and 49ers have big plans for Leeds,” he said.
“That means they see themselves in the Premier League and want to take advantages of the full riches on offer. My concern with fair financial flow is that defining ‘fair flow’ is extremely difficult.
“There is no point in having a stronger Championship if you have a less competitive Premier League.
“The gaps between the extremely rich and the moderately rich in the Premier League are substantial.
“If we move to something like Project Big Picture off the back of this, that will reduce the competitiveness of the Premier League.”
How and when will the financial distribution issue be sorted?
The regulator is not expected to dictate how much the likes of Leeds may have to pay in solidarity payments to the EFL in future but rather it will enforce and oversee the distribution.
With the EFL wanting more than £119m, this raises the question of how the logistics of the process will unfold, with the regulator’s backstop powers playing a central role.
“As far as the backstop powers, it would work along the lines of game theory,” explained Maguire.
“This is really good. It shows DCMS has some smart people that have tried to bring both parties together.
“But it will be a sealed bid from the Premier League and a sealed bid from the EFL.
“The regulator will then choose one or the other. It won’t be a compromise. Under those circumstances, you would tend to think both the Premier League and the EFL would tend towards the middle because otherwise you could lose out.
“I know the Premier League is concerned the EFL won’t cooperate because they feel they can get a better deal from the backstop than they can from negotiation.
“That is the reservation the Premier League has and I think it’s an understandable one.”